There has been much discussion about whether Florida and Michigan’s results in the Dem. primary should be counted or not, and how they should be counted. Whether the rules were applied inconsistently. Whether there should be a revote. How that revote should be conducted.
Here are the facts as I see them:
- It is arguable whether or not the rules were applied inconsistently to Florida and Michigan versus other states whose primaries were held earlier
- It is also unimportant, because regardless of what happened in the past, the results in Michigan and Florida are not legitimate
- The only solution that won’t be disastrous for the Democratic nominee is a full revote. Not some piddly mail-in vote like Florida is discussing.
If you believe that the rules were applied inconsistently to Florida and Michigan, then you may try to argue for inclusion of their results. If you have any interest at all in a Democrat being elected, that would be suicidal to your self interest.
First scenario: Let’s say that under some far out circumstance, the Florida and Michigan results were counted as they are and Hillary Clinton wins the nomination. Her candidacy would not only be viewed as illegitimate by her opposition and the rest of the world, but by a significant constituency in her own party.
Second scenario: Michigan and Florida’s results are discarded entirely, and Obama narrowly wins the delegate count. The political theorists’ wet dream happens: a brokered convention. Regardless of who is appointed the nominee, a significant constituency again will view the candidacy as illegitimate. Perhaps less so than in the first scenario, but significant nonetheless. It will be far worse if the candidate who lost the delegate count or popular vote is the appointee.
Bill Clinton’s presidency was never viewed as legitimate by his opposition because he never won a majority of the vote (remember Ross Perot?).
George W. Bush’s presidency was never viewed as legitimate by his opposition because of the questionable results in Florida and his subsequent appointment to office by the Supreme Court.
Under either scenario outline above, if the Democratic nominee somehow manages to win the election amidst ear-splitting acrimony from within his or her own party, we would have a third president in a row whose election is viewed as illegitimate.
I doubt Howard Dean’s competence at his job at this point, but I also doubt that even he is dumb enough to allow either of those scenarios to happen. Maybe time will prove me wrong, but I view new elections in Florida and Michigan as inevitable. It’s only a question of how, when and who will pay for them.
Mail-in votes like Florida is suggesting would run into the same legitimacy problems that the two scenarios I outlined above would encounter. A pair of full do-overs are the only scenario that can possibly solve this.
The problem is cost. Florida’s would run about $30 $20 million ($10 million in Michigan for a total of $30 million). Who’s going to have to pony up for them?
Or, is Howard Dean really dumb enough to allow this to be settled any other way?
Update 11:38 a.m. Ugg, Howard Dean suggests mail-in ballots.






I read somewhere that soft money financing would be permitted in funding the do-over elections. So coming up with the $50 million or so total wouldn’t be nearly as hard as under traditional fund raising guidelines.
On one hand I sort of hope so, but on the other I almost wish the whole thing would just fall apart (the system, not just the Democrats’ dysfunctional corner of it).
Remember those halcyon days of yore (like three months ago) when everyone believed that even Democrats couldn’t screw up this election?
Saying “even Democrats couldn’t screw up this election” is the equivalent of a redneck saying “hey y’all, check this shit out.”
C’mon Russell Tanton,
I thought the great Howard Dean was your boy.
The state parties can select their delegates however they like. Thats why some have primaries and some have caucuses. What’s the problem if Florida and Michigan decide to go with a mail-in vote?
What if Florida and Michigan had decided 2 years ago that they would choose their delegates by mail-in vote?
By the way, this clusterfuck was engineered by Republicans, at least in Florida. It was the Republican legislature that decided to hold primaries in January, when they knew that Dem rules would cause this type of mess. And the Florida Dems went along, knowing that in a normal election year (who knew) turnout would be miserable if they held their own primary.
Blue, just because I interviewed him doesn’t mean I want to quit my job and have his babies.
Scott, you make a good point about the Florida part of the clusterfuck being engineered by the Republican legislature. But a mail-in vote would be ridiculous at any time. I think caucuses are pretty ridiculous and arcane as well, but that’s a whole other thread.
Whatever,
You’re still a fan of the Gov.
I never “believed that even Democrats couldn’t screw up this election?” We Democrats are always perilously close to grasping defeat from the jaws of victory even in the best of times.
Frankly, I don’t have the sympathy some do with Florida and Michigan. They knew they were breaking the rules. I’ve also heard from a reliable source that the Florida Democratic party was offered a *sizable* donation to postpone their voting until the approved time and that they basically said “f” you to the donor.
As far as Nevada and South Carolina breaking them as well, I don’t read it that way. They were permitted to hold their caucus/primary in the pre-2/5 window and they did.
In any event, this needs to be worked out somehow. If only so my mom’s vote (she’s in Michigan) will count
She (my mom) thinks the Clinton & Obama campaign should pay for it…
We all pay for it. One way or another.
Let Obama and Clinton pay half of the cost, do it through party mechanisms and take the delegates that way. Its going to end up 50-50 any way like all the other primaries…
and I think you DO love Howard Dean, Rusty.