I have no idea when bowl selections will be final, so I’m going to go ahead and post Picks scores heading into the bowl games. It warmed my heart to see USC lose and make yet another mess of the BCS. I think Florida should play in the title game, but that Michigan will end up there. And it will be boring. And it will render the regular season meeting between TOSU and Michigan completely pointless.
Week 14 Results
| Player | ATS | Win % | Fav % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARBY | 6-2 | 75% | 62.5% |
| Alyssa | 6-2 | 75% | 62.5% |
| Cee yoU Next Tuesday Sir | 6-2 | 75% | 62.5% |
| Ben K | 5-3 | 62.5% | 50% |
| Bill | 5-3 | 62.5% | 50% |
| Carl Lindecrantz | 5-3 | 62.5% | 0% |
| Furious D | 5-3 | 62.5% | 0% |
| Tony | 5-3 | 62.5% | 75% |
| griftdrift | 5-3 | 62.5% | 75% |
| Audacity | 4-4 | 50% | 37.5% |
| Kenneth | 4-4 | 50% | 37.5% |
| Patrick | 4-4 | 50% | 62.5% |
| Sara | 4-4 | 50% | 62.5% |
| Scott | 4-4 | 50% | 87.5% |
| Amber | 3-5 | 37.5% | 75% |
| Garrett | 3-5 | 37.5% | 75% |
| Rusty | 3-5 | 37.5% | 50% |
| Lush | 2-6 | 25% | 62.5% |
| buzzbrockway | 1-7 | 12.5% | 75% |
| Bull | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| CM | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Dignan | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Epistemizer | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Jared Brown | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Jerry | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Josh Page | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Kelley Roberson | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Ron | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Salvatore Sheffo | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Scott Sherman | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Scrivener | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Seth | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| The Ixxperience | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| TheMuse | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| Thomas | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| brit878 | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| chuck | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
| rugby_fan | 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Overall Standings Through Week 14
| Player | ATS | Win % | Fav % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Lindecrantz | 149-116 | 56.23% | 49.43% |
| Alyssa | 148-117 | 55.85% | 80.75% |
| Rusty | 148-117 | 55.85% | 77.74% |
| Kenneth | 146-119 | 55.09% | 62.64% |
| Ben K | 144-121 | 54.34% | 72.08% |
| Lush | 144-121 | 54.34% | 71.7% |
| griftdrift | 144-121 | 54.34% | 80% |
| Audacity | 142-123 | 53.58% | 81.13% |
| ARBY | 140-125 | 52.83% | 81.89% |
| Sara | 138-127 | 52.08% | 73.96% |
| Cee yoU Next Tuesday Sir | 137-128 | 51.7% | 78.87% |
| Furious D | 137-128 | 51.7% | 79.62% |
| Patrick | 137-128 | 51.7% | 75.09% |
| buzzbrockway | 136-129 | 51.32% | 71.7% |
| Josh Page | 133-132 | 50.19% | 69.81% |
| Tony | 130-135 | 49.06% | 64.53% |
| Garrett | 127-138 | 47.92% | 80% |
| Bill | 126-139 | 47.55% | 51.7% |
| Scott | 125-140 | 47.17% | 75.47% |
| Amber | 116-149 | 43.77% | 51.7% |
| Scrivener | 115-150 | 43.4% | 71.7% |
| rugby_fan | 115-150 | 43.4% | 63.02% |
| brit878 | 110-155 | 41.51% | 64.91% |
| Epistemizer | 106-159 | 40% | 48.3% |
| The Ixxperience | 82-183 | 30.94% | 44.15% |
| Jared Brown | 81-184 | 30.57% | 44.53% |
| Thomas | 81-184 | 30.57% | 42.64% |
| Dignan | 54-211 | 20.38% | 27.92% |
| Seth | 53-212 | 20% | 22.64% |
| chuck | 53-212 | 20% | 23.4% |
| Kelley Roberson | 51-214 | 19.25% | 18.87% |
| CM | 48-217 | 18.11% | 29.06% |
| TheMuse | 27-238 | 10.19% | 12.08% |
| Jerry | 18-247 | 6.79% | 8.3% |
| Salvatore Sheffo | 17-248 | 6.42% | 5.66% |
| Bull | 15-250 | 5.66% | 5.66% |
| Scott Sherman | 15-250 | 5.66% | 5.66% |
| Ron | 12-253 | 4.53% | 4.15% |
- ATS
- Against The Spread: A win is rewarded for accurately predicting when a team does or does not cover the spread. An inaccurate prediction results in a loss.
- Win %
- Win Percentage: Percentage of games won.
- Fav %
- Favorite Percentage: How many times a player predicted the favorite would cover the spread
well… while Florida certainly, um, deserved to be in this game, no one in their right mind would honestly believe that Florida would beat Michigan.
could you seriously believe that? have you watched these two teams? chris leak shovel passed directly to the defensive lineman? I hate to think what Michigan’s defensive line would do to Florida. And don’t give me that strength of schedule BS - UF was #1 in SOS, Michigan was #3. Ask OSU who they’d rather play - they’ll say Florida.
An Urban Meyer is gets the “whiniest bitch” award. way to show some class. I wonder if Florida fans will give back their 1996 title. oh, wait, did they deserve that rematch?
I fucking hate florida. I grew up a UGA fan, and now this.
Ben,
I agree with you that Florida is probably the least impressive number two in recent memory, but the Wolverines had their shot and now it’s someone else’s turn. And besides, I think Florida’s defense is good enough to keep them in a game with either UM or TOSU.
Fuck Florida.
I think the Michigan-USC game will be the much better game to watch. I have just come to believe that Ohio state is in a game all by itself. I think Rusty is on to it, Florida’s can try, but I’m not sure any team really belongs in the big show other than Ohio State.
Florida reminds me a lot of our ‘98 national championship team. They may not win pretty, but they do what it takes to get the job done.
Sorry Ben K. You are just wrong. According to opponent’s winning percentage UF is #1 and Michigan is #3 but that would mean that Michigan’s win over Wisconsin is better than Florida’s win over LSU. Yeah right. The Little 10 is down this year. How else could you have 3 teams with 1 loss or less? And how impressive did UM look in that Ball St. game? Ball St. is a middle of the road team in the MAC and UM was at home! Plus, will everyone shut the hell up about the OSU-UM game? Yes it had a lot of big plays which made it fun to watch but OSU conrolled the game after UM went up 7-0. It only ended up a 3 point game because of a very late score. Had that late score made it 17-14 rather than 42-39 then no one would even remember they played. I watched Michigan play several times this year and most of their scores came late to pull away a little. They stuggled just like Florida in most of their games. Vandy didn’t have their feet under them yet when they played at Michigan the very first game of the year and that game was 13-7 heading into the 4th for one example. Rusty, shame on you for agreeing. If UM played UF’s schedule they would have 3 losses, 2 at best.
Now about the picks. How the hell did I go 4-4? I tried to do very poorly. I even changed my mind on some games and they picked up losses for me. So we are including bowl games? Are we including all bowl games or just ones with top 25 teams?
I don’t think I ever agreed that UM (or TOSU for that matter) would make it through Florida’s schedule unscathed. I think either would have at least one and maybe two or three losses.
All I agreed to was that Florida isn’t a super-impressive number two. But they’re scrappy, and I think the game with TOSU could go either way despite computer simulations picking TOSU about 76 percent of the time (read on a blog yesterday, can’t find the source).
Fair enough Russell. My point to all of the UM fans was simply shut the hell up. UM hasn’t been blowing everyone out either. Why weren’t they in such an uproar when USC was #2? I’m not saying they aren’t a good team I just don’t think they are better than the Gators. However, you could probably take any of those top 10 teams as #2 this year because there just doesn’t seem to be a lot of separation other than Ohio St. clearly being #1. I’m still not 100% sold on Louisville as a top 10 team either but if they stomp WF then I guess they are for real. A close win or a loss and I guess not. I still think LSU might have just as much talent, probably more, than TOSU. If LSU had 5 or less penalties and 1 or 0 turnovers they would beat anyone in the country.
Kudos to the press for jumping the gun on Rich Rodriguez to Bama! Well done you collective dumb asses! I don’t blame him for not going though. 10-2 one year with a big extension earned to 6-6 the next and you’re fired. Who would want that? I’ll go coach them for $156,479 per year plus a $500 bonus if I get them to a bowl game. Oh, and free Taco Bell whenever I want it. Are you listening Bama? I might be the only person in the world that would take the job.
So Rusty, does Carl know football? I just noticed that he picked all upsets this week which would make me think he really doesn’t. The only other person that picked and selected all upsets was Furious D. Enough said.
Sure, florida deserves their shot. thats fine. good luck, and frankly I hate OSU more so I hope that Florida wins - I’d rather see Florida get a championship than OSU.
UM doesn’t blow people up. Lloyd Carr simply doesn’t play that brand of football. But with the exception of the Ball State game, when we put our 2nd and 3rd stringers in early, Michigan wasn’t really in danger in any game. Having watched both teams, I really don’t think Florida is better than Michigan - if they were, then I think more polls would have had them better than UM before last week. UM fans weren’t in an uproar when USC was #2 because most of us felt that they might be as good as we are. That is simply not the case with Florida.
And there is plenty of evidence that the SEC isn’t that much better than the Big 10 - namely look at their non-conference schedule. The SEC’s competition was not much different, even weaker. When we are talking about teams with the #1 and #3 SOS, I think we are splitting hairs about who had a rougher time of it.
But I agree, Florida deserves a shot, fine. And I’m not really pissed about the system, it worked the way it is supposed to - finding some way to pick the no. 2 team when there is going to be controversy. I’m mostly just disappointed. I don’t “blame” Florida, really.
I think that Florida “deserves” being in this game as much as UM. I just also think that UM is a better team, and I think most pollsters believed that, as evidenced by their previous votes. There was nothing in that Arkansas game that proved UF better than they had been the rest of the year. Thats all.
Mostly, like any football fan, I just wish my team was in the big game.
Again, good luck UF. But Urban Meyer is a disgrace - especially compared to Lloyd Carr. He makes me sick. Florida Fans should be embarrassed.
Florida fans screaming about a rematch being wrong are simply hypocrites. I really think a UM-OSU game on a neutral field with halfway decent turf would be incredible, and that UM would win.
Kenneth,
I don’t actually know Carl, so you’d have to ask him.
Ben,
Jmac has a good breakdown of the two teams’ respective schedules at The Cover Two. You should read the whole thing, but here’s the nut of it:
The dealbreaker for me is Florida winning its conference and Michigan not. A team that didn’t win its conference really shouldn’t be there (yes, I know it’s happened before), but better have an overwhelming resume if it’s going to stake a claim to being in that game. Michigan has a comparable resume to Florida’s, but certainly not an overwhelming one. And even, as I believe Jmac demonstrated, a signifigantly weaker schedule that a one versus three ranking isn’t sufficient to explain.
I’ve watched Michigan play twice this year, and they’re very good. I might spot them 4 points against the Gators. But they don’t look all that much better. Florida’s offense is unimpressive but passable, but its defense is ferocious.
Listen, I concede that Florida belongs in the title game, they deserve it, etc. according to the rules, they have claim. By plaing in the the game, I must accept the decision by those rules.
(I do think that the conference championship thing is kind of a bogus argument, since the game in question here for Michigan was Ohio State. that game was a de-facto semifinal for a NC game, and reducing Michigan’s loss there to “oh, you didnt win a conference title” is unfair.)
It is just stupid to think that Florida is a better team than Michigan. Thats my point.
The SEC is good, but I think you’ll find in the bowl games that the Big 10 wins as many or more games than the SEC. Lets not forget that the SEC runner up was trounced at home by USC. And that Michigan beat Vandy more convincingly than Florida did (UF got outgained, for heaven’s sake).
No, it isn’t. The only superficially impressive win Michigan had was against Notre Dame, a team with a secondary a high school quarterback could rip to shreds. It’s a weak case to hang your hat on that and a loss to Ohio State that wasn’t as close as the score indicated it was.
While I think there is room for an argument about which team is better, Michigan does not appear to me to be overwhelmingly better.
Maybe I’m biased toward the SEC when comparing it to the Big 10 (or even Michigan specifically) because my last memory of of a Michigan-SEC matchup was when my Vols handed the Wolverines their most lopsided bowl loss in school history in the 2001 Citrus Bowl.
Five most recent UM vs. SEC bowl games (4-1, including one BCS win):
Jan. 1, 1999 Citrus Arkansas W 45-31
Jan. 1, 2000 Orange Alabama W 35-34 OT
Jan. 1, 2001 Citrus Auburn W 31-28
Jan. 1, 2002 Citrus Tennessee L 17-45
Jan. 1, 2003 Outback Florida W 38-30
Yes, and none of those prove anything this year, just as the 2001 Citrus Bowl has no bearing on this year.
When you say “It is just stupid to think that Florida is a better team than Michigan,” you move way past a debatable argument into the realm of a bitter, whiny Michigan fan/Big 10 partisan. Michigan’s performances this year just don’t bear out what you’re saying.
I was mostly just responding to your Tennessee comment. I think that there are plenty of reasons that UM is a better team.
In terms of this year, would you call Florida’s best wins Arkansas, LSU, and Tenn? and UM’s Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Penn State? Wisconsin and LSU are ranked one or two apart, depending on which poll. Notre Dame is ranked above Arkansas, as well as above Auburn, who UF lost to. Tennesse is ranked, while Penn State is not - we’ll see who is better since they are playing in the outback bowl. Not to mention that UF’s tough schedule actually includes a I-AA team. At least Ball State plays in the MAC. Oh, and Michigan didn’t have a bye week all year. that should factor into the SOS debate fwiw. In may opinion, the schedule thing is mostly a wash, although UF gets a slight nod. I think most of the schedule-favoring-Florida is the difference between the no. 1 and no. 3 SOS. splitting hairs.
If you watch these teams, Michigan has a much more potent offense (especially when Manningham is healthy), and a defense that is faster and more aggressive. Florida has lucked out on a few games this year, the most recent of which was a sloppy game against Arkansas. I mean, fumbling on the five for a touchdown recovery?? UM was never as close as the two one point wins that UF has. not even remotely. UM pretty much dominated every game this year - only Minnesota got close, and only for about five minutes in the fourth when we put in our second string defense. Our defense flat out stifled people. The Penn State score isn’t indicative of the fact that we flat knocked out two of their QBs (on clean hits, not like some old school FSU stuff).
Michigan’s QB doesn’t make the BS errors that Leak has made (like shovel passing to the defensive lineman), has a tailback who finished no. 5 in the heisman, has three defensive linemen who will be drafted in the first three rounds (one who won a postseason award this year), as well as probably two linebackers. And a corner who was a finalist for some post season awards.
If you’ve watched both of these teams, the only way that you can say UF is better than UM is if you are just blindly SEC biased. there is a reason that UF was behind Michigan in all the polls until this past week - and you know as well as I do that ARkansas win was not good enough to make that big of a difference. Michigan would beat florida if they played, you even said so yourself (although I could be misreading your post).
Manningham? There’s an entire town full of Mannings out there? And Michigan has them on their team? Well, Florida’s fucked then.
What I said is they don’t appear to be an overwhelmingly better team. Because they’re not an overwhelmingly better team.
I also said I might spot the Wolverines four points. That doesn’t mean that if they played ten times I’d pick Michigan to win ten times. And that’s the gauge to me of “you’d be stupid to pick Florida in that game” or even “you’re stupid if you think Florida is the better team.”
All of this is speculative, so no one gets to make a “Florida would beat Michigan” or “Michigan would beat Florida” statement with any authority. And if you claim to be 100 percent certain of either outcome, then you don’t watch much college football.
Please excuse my hyperbole. “Stupid to pick florida” was hyperbole. I do believe that Michigan is a much better team, but certainly there is enough room for debate that you wouldn’t have to be stupid.
I will certainly admit to being a bit bitter about the whole thing. My main point, that first post, was the Michigan was the better team (which you’ve basically conceded , and which was the consensus of most of the country until everyone decided that they didn’t want a rematch).
And also, most of my bitterness really stems from Urban Meyer and the way he lobbied for Florida and insulted Michigan. He really makes me sick. All due props to UF for winning the SEC, but I’d take half a Lloyd Carr over ten Urban Meyers.
This is great! After reading Ben’s first post following my last I thought this wasn’t going to be any fun at all but I find myself gleefully drumming my fingers together while remembering all of the arrows flying! And then Furious D shows up with his own brand of humor. Bravo! It’s about damn time someone argued on this site. Excellent points on both sides old chaps. However, UM and UF are very similar. Both have great D’s and, despite Ben’s comments, both have offenses that struggle at times. Fascinating stuff recalling past UM bowl games against SEC teams. Until the 3 Big 10-SEC bowl games are played the debate will just have to continue. However, I do have to note that the SEC is favored in 2 of those games. The one line that surprises me is a 3 loss Arkansas team being favored over a one loss Wisconsin team. That should be the swing game. TN should beat PSU and Ohio St should beat UF but you never know! I’ve gotten my jollies so now I’ll go pick some bowl games. Ta ta!