Questions abound this week leading up to the Oct. 7 SEC East showdown between UT and UGA. Tennessee’s run game wasn’t nearly as impressive against Marshall as the final stats would indicate, LaMarcus Coker’s 89-yard touchdown run notwithstanding. Meanwhile, Georgia has a surprisingly weak run game so far despite having some highly-regarded tailbacks. Both teams appear to have talented tailbacks held back by offensive line problems.
That moves us on to other problem areas for both teams: Tennessee’s porous run defense and Georgia’s potentially toxic quarterback situation. If I were picking the game this week, I’d say it would come down to which of those two situations hurt their team less. But I’m not picking the game this week.
There’s a game for each team between now and then, and each team has a chance to work on their problem areas. Tennessee plays Memphis, which is always a scary game. Four of the last five have been close. Georgia plays a horrible, horrible Ole Miss team it should handle easily no matter which quarterback starts… even if they were to dig Quincy Carter out of the crack house.
Week 4 Results
| Player | ATS | Win % | Fav % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Furious D | 14-5 | 73.68% | 73.68% |
| Kelley Roberson | 13-6 | 68.42% | 57.89% |
| Thomas | 13-6 | 68.42% | 68.42% |
| ARBY | 12-7 | 63.16% | 84.21% |
| Audacity | 12-7 | 63.16% | 94.74% |
| CM | 12-7 | 63.16% | 94.74% |
| Carl Lindecrantz | 11-8 | 57.89% | 47.37% |
| Epistemizer | 11-8 | 57.89% | 57.89% |
| Garrett | 11-8 | 57.89% | 100% |
| Rusty | 11-8 | 57.89% | 89.47% |
| brit878 | 11-8 | 57.89% | 89.47% |
| griftdrift | 11-8 | 57.89% | 78.95% |
| rugby_fan | 11-8 | 57.89% | 100% |
| Ben K | 10-9 | 52.63% | 84.21% |
| Alyssa | 9-10 | 47.37% | 68.42% |
| Cee yoU Next Tuesday Sir | 9-10 | 47.37% | 89.47% |
| Jared Brown | 9-10 | 47.37% | 89.47% |
| Lush | 9-10 | 47.37% | 89.47% |
| Patrick | 9-10 | 47.37% | 68.42% |
| The Ixxperience | 9-10 | 47.37% | 89.47% |
| buzzbrockway | 9-10 | 47.37% | 78.95% |
| chuck | 9-10 | 47.37% | 78.95% |
| Bill | 8-11 | 42.11% | 63.16% |
| Kenneth | 8-11 | 42.11% | 42.11% |
| Scrivener | 8-11 | 42.11% | 84.21% |
| Josh Page | 7-12 | 36.84% | 78.95% |
| Sara | 7-12 | 36.84% | 68.42% |
| Seth | 7-12 | 36.84% | 68.42% |
| Tony | 5-14 | 26.32% | 68.42% |
| Amber | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| Bull | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| Dignan | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| Jerry | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| Ron | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| Salvatore Sheffo | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| Scott | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| Scott Sherman | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
| TheMuse | 0-19 | 0% | 0% |
Overall Standings Through Week 4
| Player | ATS | Win % | Fav % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 57-25 | 69.51% | 80.49% |
| Furious D | 57-25 | 69.51% | 75.61% |
| rugby_fan | 57-25 | 69.51% | 92.68% |
| Rusty | 56-26 | 68.29% | 81.71% |
| Garrett | 55-27 | 67.07% | 90.24% |
| Thomas | 55-27 | 67.07% | 82.93% |
| brit878 | 55-27 | 67.07% | 87.8% |
| griftdrift | 55-27 | 67.07% | 78.05% |
| Cee yoU Next Tuesday Sir | 54-28 | 65.85% | 86.59% |
| Lush | 54-28 | 65.85% | 71.95% |
| Audacity | 53-29 | 64.63% | 82.93% |
| Ben K | 53-29 | 64.63% | 75.61% |
| Jared Brown | 53-29 | 64.63% | 85.37% |
| Scrivener | 53-29 | 64.63% | 82.93% |
| The Ixxperience | 53-29 | 64.63% | 85.37% |
| chuck | 53-29 | 64.63% | 75.61% |
| Patrick | 52-30 | 63.41% | 71.95% |
| ARBY | 51-31 | 62.2% | 85.37% |
| Epistemizer | 50-32 | 60.98% | 67.07% |
| Kenneth | 50-32 | 60.98% | 62.2% |
| Sara | 50-32 | 60.98% | 74.39% |
| Carl Lindecrantz | 49-33 | 59.76% | 60.98% |
| Josh Page | 47-35 | 57.32% | 78.05% |
| Tony | 47-35 | 57.32% | 70.73% |
| buzzbrockway | 47-35 | 57.32% | 65.85% |
| Dignan | 44-38 | 53.66% | 69.51% |
| Kelley Roberson | 41-41 | 50% | 50% |
| Scott | 40-42 | 48.78% | 52.44% |
| Amber | 38-44 | 46.34% | 50% |
| Seth | 34-48 | 41.46% | 46.34% |
| CM | 31-51 | 37.8% | 50% |
| Bill | 30-52 | 36.59% | 46.34% |
| TheMuse | 27-55 | 32.93% | 39.02% |
| Jerry | 18-64 | 21.95% | 26.83% |
| Salvatore Sheffo | 17-65 | 20.73% | 18.29% |
| Bull | 15-67 | 18.29% | 18.29% |
| Scott Sherman | 15-67 | 18.29% | 18.29% |
| Ron | 12-70 | 14.63% | 13.41% |
- ATS
- Against The Spread: A win is rewarded for accurately predicting when a team does or does not cover the spread. An inaccurate prediction results in a loss.
- Win %
- Win Percentage: Percentage of games won.
- Fav %
- Favorite Percentage: How many times a player predicted the favorite would cover the spread
Full results can be viewed here.
Week 5 Odds
There was no line for the Sam Houston-Texas game, so I made one up.
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Michigan in a blow out - the coaches won’t say it, but this will be a revenge beat down.
Hahahaha. Football noob goes on painkiller binge, wins picks week. Rusty’s wordpresses explode in protest.
Goddamn, your blog practically writes itself.
I’m just glad to be ahead of Dignan in the overall standings.
Ha, Buzz, that was gutsy to pick Georgia not to cover. Ole Miss is awful.
12-7? Shit. That’s a lot better than I thought I did.
So last week, I didn’t pick Georgia to cover and they have a blow-out.. so of course, I pick them to cover this week and they fuck it up.
Sometimes Lush touches me in my dark places.
Rusty, I submitted picks and it gave me the little thank you for submitting screen, but now it’s showing me all the choices again. Can you confirm that mine are in, or do I need to resubmit?
Did the same thing to me. Fortunately, I saved my picks this time in an email if I have to resubmit them.
Nevermind. Logged back in and my picks were saved.
This is weird, and I have no good explanation for it. What I do know is when I try to log into phpMyAdmin to look at the databases, I’m getting a weird error message. So I’m assuming there’s something fucked up with their database hosting (again). Dreamhost is starting to piss me off.
OK now that I am reading from work they appear to show up. Thanks for checking on it, though–when I made the picks at home this morning and even refreshed the page 2 or 3 times, it wasn’t working.
Sigh.
I lost my pick AND Auburn still won.
Thursday games. Huh. Well, there goes my lead.
I hereby switch my pick from VA Tech to GT.
[...] Tennessee-Georgia week, bitches. I wrote last week that the UT-UGA game could go either way, depending on which of the respective teams’ weak units screw up less. I still believe that, and had I been picking the game last week, I’d probably have spotted UGA a field goal. But this week, Tennessee appears to be showing improvement in some of its weak areas (offensive line play, porous run defense), while Georgia is trending downward or has at best stagnated in its problem areas (offensive line play, quarterbacks). [...]